Russia refocuses towards victory by May according to US officials. They are looking to take over the Donbas and other regions of Eastern Ukraine by next month.
US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” according to a US official. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can show a victory. The most likely place he could achieve it would be in eastern Ukraine according to the intelligence reports.
“Putin will have a victory parade on 9 May regardless of the status of the war or peace talks,” a European defense official said. “On the other hand: a victory parade with what troops and vehicles?”
Still, US and European officials say any deadlines Moscow may set rhetorically don’t change the reality on the ground that Russia appears to be preparing for the prospect of an extended conflict.
A European diplomat said while the Kremlin is talking optimistically, Putin is preparing for a “Chechnya-style long, drawn-out war, because he, to a certain extent, has nowhere else to go on this.”
Ukrainian officials have publicly pointed to the date as well. “Ahead of May 9, Putin set the goal of a victory parade for this war,” Ukrainian Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said on Thursday.
“His ultimate goal is, was, and will be to take over Ukraine, but he failed. He failed due to a very strong resolve of the Ukrainian military and very strong unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions that have been imposed by the United States and G7 and the European Union,” Yatsenyuk said. “So now, as far as I see, Putin switched to Plan B. My take is that this Plan B has a kind of, deadline.”